September Jobs Data
by Jay Pestrichelli on October 5th, 2012
The pre-market traders like the September jobs report that showed a drop in the unemployment to 7.8%. We believe BIG revisions of more than 90k have more to do with it than the new 114k reported in September. The strangest place, though were the revisions to the last 2 months of government jobs.
For the past year government jobs were on the decline to the tune of 15k per month. For example last month the reported a Jun number of -21 and a July of -7. However, this month Jun was +18, Jul +45 and Sep +10. That’s a shift from the norm, but when you look where those jobs were, it was in education. I can be convinced that teachers and assistance were hired in August. Last year the data also showed a one-month pop of 20k that supports this theory. However, there will be plenty of skeptics calling for manipulation or fixing of the info.
Private sector jobs were still not great. The rise of 104k is nothing to be happy about even with the revisions. Manufacturing had some contraction losing 16k, and information continued its 2 year downtrend losing 6k.
The standouts on the higher sider were Transportation adding 25k, Financial services adding 13k, and as always Healthcare adding 44k.
Bottom line, we’re not enthusiastic about this report and even with the revisions we’re barely reaching the 200k needed to create growth. We expect the top line number of 7.8% to be a focal point of the presidential platforms, but really, there’s nothing to get excited about in our opinion.
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