Jobs Data Today

by Jay Pestrichelli on December 2nd, 2011

This morning we will be on Fox Business News talking about the jobs data and having a general market discussion.

An important thing to remember about the Employment Situation report is that it is typically a lagging indicator. Meaning that its move is behind the market's move. So why do we care so much?

First, we can use the data as a validation of whatever investing thesis you may use.

Second, the monthly expected change in growth or decline in jobs becomes the point of interest, not necessarily the unemployment rate. Investors pay attention to how the results come in vs. expectation because its used to confirm vs. spur market action. This is why a surprise in the data can cause traders to react.

The ADP data gave a hint that the number of jobs may dramatically outperform for the month, but ADP has given a false positive before, so we say wait for the real data before making an assessment. The street is expecting 120,000 new jobs today, but APD has driven many to raise their expectation to 175,000-200,000 and anything short could cause a tough day.

If you'd like the link the government press release click here.


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